Infantry Fighting Vehicles in Ukraine - losses, lessons & will Western IFVs matter?

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While tanks and fighters tend to win public attention, the fighting in Ukraine has done a lot to remind us of the critical role played by the infantry. And to survive and thrive on the battlefield, the infantry in Ukraine rely on their armoured personnel carriers and infantry fighting vehicles to enable to enable movement and provide fire support.

Those vehicles, so critical to both sides have, however, been lost in extreme numbers - with no vehicle on the Russian side having suffered more visually confirmed losses than the BMP-2.

Now, it seems, the floodgates are opening on the supply of Western IFVs to Ukraine. In this video I look at these vehicles, their employment in Ukraine, and suggest that despite being lost in large numbers - that they will remain critical in the fighting to come.

Special thanks to those consulted for this video.

Patreon:
https://www.patreon.com/PerunAU

Caveats & Comments:
I mispeak and call RUSI the "uniform services institute" - It is correctly (and has for the better part of two centuries) been the "united services institute."

As always, keep in mind that while visually confirmed loss data is among the best data we have for setting loss baselines, it is limited and should be interpreted with care.

To enable some of the analysis in this video, some data treatment was done - for example, entries for destroyed BMPs where the variant could not be determined were divided, pro-rata

Regarding the narrative - while the BMP-1 had a major impact, I should note that other IFV type vehicles preceded it - with perhaps the most significant being the German HS.30.

In this video, I call the Stryker an American vehicle due to its service. The vehicle has Canadian DNA and is built there

Notes/further reading:
pre-war equipment levels are as per Military Balance 2021 for consistency.

Loss and resupply data as per Oryx as noted:
https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html

War for Ukraine - First Conclusions from 2022 and New Challenges 2023
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=54daqNraMxE

Preliminary Lessons in Conventional Warfighting from Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine: February–July 2022
https://static.rusi.org/359-SR-Ukraine-Preliminary-Lessons-Feb-July-2022-web-final.pdf

TASS - on the Bradley
https://tass.com/defense/1561793

TASS - on BMP-2 Production
https://tass.ru/interviews/15445983?utm_source=google.com&utm_medium=organic&utm_campaign=google.com&utm_referrer=google.com

On the pledge of Marders and BMPs to Ukraine
https://www.defensenews.com/pentagon/2023/01/05/us-and-germany-pledge-infantry-fighting-vehicles-for-ukraine/

Russian MoD claim of destroyed Bradleys is as per their official TG channel - September 4 2022

GAO assessment of Bradley and Abrams in Desert Storm
https://www.gao.gov/assets/nsiad-92-94.pdf

Timestamps:
00:00:00 — Opening Words
00:01:57 — What Am I Talking About?
00:02:36 — SPONSOR: GROUND NEWS
00:03:43 — IFVs: History & Doctrine
00:03:52 — The Combined Arms Problem
00:05:17 — VARIETY OF RESPONSES
00:06:36 — Halftracks & APCs
00:08:05 — The BMP-1
00:10:14 — IFVs & Modern Mechanised Infantry
00:11:06 — Related Vehicles
00:12:08 — PRE WAR FORCES
00:12:13 — The Russian Arsenal
00:14:02 — The "Cutting Edge"
00:15:57 — Fossils
00:17:08 — Shortage Conditions
00:17:51 — The Primary Force
00:19:14 — The Ukrainian Armoury
00:20:07 — The Soviet Inheritance
00:20:28 — New Gen. Vehicles
00:21:28 — Western Systems
00:22:19 — LOSSES: AND WHY THEY AREN'T EVERYTHING
00:23:02 — Assessing Losses
00:23:59 — Overall Trends
00:25:54 — Visually Confirmed Losses
00:27:20 — ORYX IFV & APC Visually Confirmed Losses
00:29:07 — Russian Losses
00:31:24 — Analysing Ukrainian Losses
00:33:15 — Highlighting Outliers
00:36:08 — Three Common Potential Misconceptions
00:36:53 — ORYX Implied Net IFV Loss
00:38:18 — Colonel Reisner
00:39:27 — EMPLOYMENT & EXPERIENCE
00:40:11 — Infantry Support and Early Losses
00:41:50 — Vulnerability
00:43:15 — Relationship with Survivability
00:45:20 — Dispersion & Concentration
00:46:09 — A Critical Tool
00:48:07 — Static Warfare
00:49:03 — Through the Fog of War
00:49:49 — Potential Lessons
00:50:19 — RESUPPLY & REPLACEMENTS
00:50:28 — The Need to Replenish
00:51:40 — Russian Efforts (and Debates)
00:53:28 — Western Resupply
00:55:17 — The Shift To Heavier Materiel
00:55:59 — A Note on Quantities
00:57:19 — MEET THE CANDIDATES
00:57:24 — Marder
00:58:18 — M2/M3 Bradley
00:59:24 — Moving the Needle?
01:01:06 — STRYKER (+MGS)
01:01:44 — THE RUSSIAN RESPONSE
01:02:07 — 1: Gross Escalation
01:02:37 — 2: The System is Terrible
01:03:09 — 3: They Were Destroyed
01:03:51 — WHAT NEXT?
01:03:55 — The Resupply Effort & Losses
01:04:47 — Force Evolution: Russia
01:05:55 — Force Evolution: Ukraine
01:06:39 — Conclusions
01:07:35 — Channel Update

InfantryFightingVehicles