Virus is close to reaching “endemic equilibrium”
Update on Balira
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London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/10/24/coronavirus-cases-slump-winter-say-scientists/
Imminent drops in infections
Cases could fall to around 5,000 a day before Christmas
Prof John Edmunds, Centre for the Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, LSHTM
Member of SAGE
Our model was projecting that cases would start to decline some time in the autumn.
However, the model also suggests that cases may start to climb again in the spring,
due to a combination of waning immunity and increased contacts
Cases currently being driven by high case rates in children
Virus is close to reaching “endemic equilibrium”
Recent oscillations in case rates will soon level
Rishi Sunak
at the moment the data does not suggest that we should be immediately moving to 'Plan B
Maggie Throup, UK vaccines minister
'Plan A' is working, situation where we need to be
United States
Pfizer for children, 5 to 11, FDA votes for EMU tomorrow
From first half of November
2 shots, 3 weeks gap
One third of adult dose
25,000 centres signed up for roll out
28 million children in demographic
https://www.pfizer.com/news/press-release/press-release-detail/pfizer-and-biontech-submit-initial-data-us-fda-pivotal
https://www.pfizer.com/news/press-release/press-release-detail/pfizer-and-biontech-announce-positive-topline-results
https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20210920005452/en/
https://www.fda.gov/media/153447/download
Results are the first from a pivotal trial of any COVID-19 vaccine in children under 12 years of age
In participants 5 to 11 years of age, the vaccine was safe, well tolerated and showed robust neutralizing antibody responses
Phase 2/3 study
United States, Finland, Poland, Spain
Children 6 months to 11 years of age
N = 2,268 5 to 11 years of age
Received a 10 µg dose level in a two-dose regimen
Strong SARS-CoV-2–neutralizing antibody response,
one month after the second dose
Continue to accumulate the safety and efficacy data
Topline readouts for the other two age cohorts from the trial, soon
Children 2-5 years of age
Children 6 months to 2 years of age
About the Phase 1/2/3 Trial in Children
N = 4,500 children ages 6 months to 11 years
More than 90 clinical trial sites
Children under 5 received a 3 µg dose
Trial enrolled children with or without prior evidence of SARS-CoV-2 infection
ONS
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19/latestinsights
Reduction in self-reported long COVID after vaccination
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19vaccinationandselfreportedlongcovidintheuk/25october2021
Identified themselves as experiencing persistent symptoms 12 weeks after first infection
A first vaccine dose was associated with an initial 13% decrease in self-reported long COVID,
and a further 9% sustained decrease after receiving the second vaccination
No evidence of differences in self-reported between Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine, compared to Pfizer/BioNTech or Moderna vaccines
UK, 30 June to 17 October 2021
Practice falls below thinking
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19/latestinsights
WA vaccine mandates
https://www.wa.gov.au/sites/default/files/2021-10/Mandate%20summary%20Final%202021%20.pdf
https://ww2.health.wa.gov.au/~/media/Corp/Documents/Health-for/Infectious-disease/COVID19/Vaccination/COVID19-Mandatory-vaccination-FAQs.pdf
https://www.10news.com/news/in-depth/in-depth-can-a-simple-technique-stop-myocarditis-after-covid-vaccination
Don’t aspirate extrapolation
https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/hcp/acip-recs/general-recs/administration.html
Aspiration before injection of vaccines or toxoids (i.e., pulling back on the syringe plunger after needle insertion but before injection)
is not necessary because no large blood vessels are present at the recommended injection sites,
and a process that includes aspiration might be more painful for infants
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